140G0322Q0024_SOW_1.docx

PERFORMANCE-BASED WORK STATEMENT

I. GENERAL INFORMATION

A. Introduction

The USGS has been monitoring several populations of a federally listed rodent (ROD) since 2011 using an occupancy framework where detection of ROD is done using thousands of tracking devices (footprint ID) to infer population status and trends. We also conduct live-trapping (mark-recapture) regularly on seven ‘core’ plots where we also obtain ROD abundance data.) The land manager and the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) would like a robust analysis performed at multiple spatial and temporal scales to ascertain the relationship between occupancy and abundance for this species in order to estimate overall population abundance based upon occupancy results. This will enable the land manager and conservation agencies to make decisions regarding harvesting mice for reintroduction programs based upon the current population size, as well as other decisions where estimating abundance is desired.

B. Background

ROD is federally listed. Species recovery goals include establishing new ROD populations. The land owner and agencies would like the option to establish populations through relocation of wild individuals. An estimate of abundance is needed to establish the number of ROD that can be safely relocated without imperiling the current populations.

C. Scope

The requirement is to write and evaluate mathematical models (such as Bayesian hierarchical models, spatially explicit models, or other as appropriate) to evaluate and establish a numerical relationship between occupancy and abundance at the level of the plot and then to the entire population. This relationship is to be analyzed at several temporal scales (i.e. monthly vs. seasonally) to inform the data required for the highest confidence estimates of this relationship.

II. WORK REQUIREMENTS

A. Technical Requirements.

Dataset (Excel file attached, 1 page): The initial dataset will include 9-10 years of co-occuring track detection data and live-trapping data on seven independent 50m X 50m plots with 16 individual subplot locations per plot. The live-trapping data was collected each year 5 times (approximately one month apart) for 3 nights in a row. The track data was collected weekly, or every 2-3 weeks (depending upon year) throughout the monitoring periods. Due to weather and access constraints, there are some missing data in the entire dataset (e.g. some occurrences where trapping occurred for 2 vs. 3 nights). A subsample of one year of data are included. The larger dataset across years and of more extensive track device monitoring will be provided upon contract award.

Task 1: Work requirements include an initial evaluation of the relationship between ROD abundance and occupancy using ROD occupancy (track device) and count (live-trapping) data at the 2 temporal scales (monthly, seasonally- active season). These will be produced using Bayesian hierarchical modeling or other as appropriate. This is very time sensitive and will be completed by the January 15, 2022.

Task 2: A more comprehensive set of models are to be produced in 2022 that incorporate spatial variation, spatial and temporal autocorrelation, and other factors as necessary to more accurately define the relationship between ROD occupancy and abundance at the level of sample units and extended to inference at population level as possible with the available data.

Task 3: Building on success of Tasks 1 and 2, the awardee will conduct one of the below; as determined in consultation with USGS:

a) design and provide reproducable code for the annual long-term occupancy monitoring analysis to incorporate spatial autocorrelation and abundance estimation within and across populations. The awardee will use this new methodology to analyze 10 years of ROD long-term monitoring data to evaluate trends in occupancy, abundance, colonization, and extinction and relationships of these parameters to approximately 20 environmental covariates.

Or

b) design a spatial and demographic population viability model to incorporate occupancy and abundance; and analyze ROD population viability in relation to future climate and management scenarios within and across populations.

Task 4 (Option Period): Subject to the availability of funds and continuing need. This task will be for either (a) or (b) of Task 3 which was not completed in the Base period.

1. Criteria for acceptance of Product or Service

Acceptance will be based on the validity of statistical methods used to conduct these analyses. Validity will be based upon the use of appropriate mathematical models and analyses of model fit and assumptions.

B. Deliverables.

Task 1: Deliverables of the initial evaluation will include a report (Microsoft Word electronic format) of methods used, program code used for analysis, and results, along with a presentation at the annual ROD Working Group Meeting.

Task 2: Deliverables of the more comprehensive models will be in the form of a report (Microsoft Word electronic format) of methods used, program code used for analysis, results, and a manuscript to be submitted to a peer reviewed scientific journal (Awardee will be primary author)

Task 3: Deliverables will be in the form of a report (Microsoft Word electronic format) of methods used, program code used for analysis, and results. The awardee will contribute to a manuscript (methods/ results) to be submitted to a peer reviewed scientific journal (USGS will be primary author).

Task 4 (Option Period): Deliverables will be in the form of a report (Microsoft Word electronic format) of methods used, program code used for analysis, and results. The awardee will contribute to a manuscript (methods/ results) to be submitted to a peer reviewed scientific journal (USGS will be primary author).

1. Delivery dates for work/product to be completed and point of delivery.

Task 1: Report of the initial evaluation will be provided by January 15, 2022 with presentation at the annual ROD Working Group Meeting typically scheduled in February of 2022.

Task 2: A report of the more comprehensive models will be submitted by June 31, 2022 and a manuscript to be submitted to a peer reviewed journal by December of 2022.

Task 3: A report of the task 3 methods, analysis, and program code will be submitted by March 31, 2023. Contribution to manuscript of monitoring program or population viability (statistical methods/results) will occur up to August 31, 2023.

Task 4 (Option Period): A report of the task 4 methods, analysis, and program code will be submitted by September 30, 2023. Contribution to manuscript of monitoring program or population viability (statistical methods/results) will occur up to December 31, 2023.

III. SUPPORTING INFORMATION

A. Place of Performance.

At the Contractor’s facility. The contractor will work remotely and provide his/her own computer equipment and programs to conduct the work necessary to provide the listed deliverables.

B. Period of Performance.

Base period: ASAP – 08/31/2023 Option period: 04/01/2023 –12/31/2023

C. Government Furnished Property (GFP): list property and its value.

No Government Furnished Property will be provided.

D. Special Considerations.

1. Key personnel qualifications Qualifications for the awardee include an extensive history of mathematical modeling of occupancy and abundance of wildlife populations using Bayesian and spatially explicit models. The awardee shall be an expert with multiple peer reviewed publications in this area of analysis.

The contractor shall have a mastery of creating and implementing mathematical models to address questions in species occupancy and abundance. The candidate shall have excellent writing and oral communication skills. To evaluate this, contractor shall provide evidence to support the following:

At least 10 years of experience and mastery in all below (postgraduate work) -

· Creating and building novel and complex mathematical models in ecology

· Programming in R and JAGS/WinBugs

· Modeling data using frequentist, maximum likelihood based, and Bayesian statistical methods.

· Occupancy Modeling (multi-year, multi-state, and advanced spatial models)

· Abundance modeling (including multi-year and spatialy explicit models)

· Working with large, imperfect, and disorderly datasets.

A history of peer-reviewed publications with the requirements below (Candidate should be primary author on at least 10 of the publications). Contractor shall provide resume to support the following:

· A minimum of 10 peer reviewed publications where the candidate used dynamic occupancy modeling to analyze species monitoring data.

· A minimum of 5 peer reviewed publications where the candidate used mark-recapture models to analyze species monitoring data.

· A minimum of 5 peer reviewed publications where the candidate presents (as primary author) novel mathematical models for occupancy or abundance of species and that advance the knowledge of these fields. (mathematical models must be unique for each publication- i.e. count does not include multiple publications using the same model).

1. NONE

3. Security/Privacy issues. NONE

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