Project Grant NNX17AH49G
- This three-year, $358,347 project grant from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) will support research to determine the role of ocean dynamics in Atlantic sea surface temperature variations using coupled climate models. The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution will lead a collaborative effort to develop a hierarchy of coupled climate models within the Community Earth System Model version 2 platform. Comparisons between model pairs that disable specific oceanic...
- The National Science Foundation (NSF) Directorate for Geosciences awarded this $406,911 Project Grant to the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) under the Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) to develop methods for enhancing spatiotemporal monitoring of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The key objectives are to: 1) Design and implement a framework for reconstruction of AMOC from indirect observations, 2) Extend historical AMOC records using machine learning...
- The Regents of the University of California at Riverside received a $325k project grant award from the National Science Foundation Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences on July 15, 2021 to conduct collaborative research quantifying the global and regional impacts of the slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation through June 30, 2024. The research aims to strengthen understanding of the integrated Earth system by expanding fundamental knowledge of the impacts of...
- The University of Connecticut received a three-year, $451,999 Project Grant from the National Science Foundation Division of Ocean Sciences Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) to conduct research on ocean circulation patterns during the Last Glacial Maximum. The university will use oxygen isotope analysis of microfossils from marine sediment cores to reconstruct Atlantic Ocean circulation approximately 20,000 years ago and determine whether southern or northern water masses dominated the deep...
- This $686,707 project grant from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) will support research into the evolution of water mass transformation and overturning in the western Nordic Seas amid climate change. Over three years, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution will apply theoretical modeling, high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice modeling using the SKRIPS system, and analysis of observational data from the Resilient Northern Overturning in a Warming Climate...
- This Project Grant award from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) provides $284,446 to the University of North Carolina at Wilmington (UNCW) to conduct collaborative research on the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its implications for climate change. The study will scrutinize recent predictions that such a collapse could occur in the mid-21st century, comparing statistical indices and simplified theoretical models to...
- This $784,389 National Science Foundation project grant under the Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) supports research into the causes of sea surface temperature fluctuations in the North Atlantic Ocean and their climatic impacts. The University of California, Riverside will conduct climate model simulations using the Community Earth System Model to explore the roles of natural variability versus external forcing factors like anthropogenic aerosols in driving the temperature changes. Specific...
- This Project Grant award from the National Science Foundation's Division of Polar Programs, under CFDA 47.078, provides $554,383 to The Johns Hopkins University to quantify the impact of recent changes in Southern Hemisphere wind patterns on the circulation and climate of the Southern Ocean. The research aims to improve understanding of how variations in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds have affected the Southern Ocean over the past four decades, including ocean currents, sea ice formation,...
- This National Science Foundation (NSF) Geosciences program award, titled "ALPACA - Advancing the Long-Range Prediction, Attribution, and Forecast Calibration of AMOC and its Climate Impacts", provides $615,117 to the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) to conduct research aimed at improving predictions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its climate impacts on seasonal-to-decadal timescales. The project will utilize AMOC observations,...
- This $440,044 federal Project Grant awarded by the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division of Ocean Sciences aims to improve understanding of the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in driving variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) will lead a collaborative research project with partners in the US and UK to 1) estimate carbon uptake, transport, and storage in the North Atlantic using new data and numerical...
THE OBSERVED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SUBPOLAR GYRE CIRCULATION SUCH AS WARMING SALINIFICATION AND DECREASED CIRCULATION OF THE SUBPOLAR GYRE IN THE 1990S FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECREASE IN THE GYRE HEAT CONTENT IN MID-2000S AND THEN RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN 2015 HAVE RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN LITERATURE AND THE MEDIA DUE TO THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CLIMATE.WHILE A NUMBER OF MECHANISMS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTED TO EXPLAIN THESE RECENT CHANGES WHETHER DIFFERENT PROCESSES DOMINATE FOR EACH OF THE DIFFERENT "EVENTS" REMAINS UNCLEAR. HERE WE PROPOSE TO EXAMINE ALL THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN A COMMON FRAMEWORK AND ADDRESS THE FOLLOWING OUTSTANDING QUESTIONS: (1) WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT WARMING/SALINIFICATION AND COOLING/FRESHENING OF THE SUBPOLAR GYRE? (2) WHAT ARE THE ROLES OF LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC FORCING AND OCEAN DYNAMICS? (3) ARE CHANGES IN WIND OR BUOYANCY FORCING MORE IMPORTANT? (4) WHAT ARE THE ROLES OF CHANGES IN THE SUBPOLAR GYRE CIRCULATION AND THE ATLANTIC MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION (AMOC)? (5) WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF RECENT CHANGES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS?TO ACCOMPLISH OUR OBJECTIVES WE OUTLINE A COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY THAT AIMS TO PAINT A FULL AND CONSISTENT PICTURE ON THE ORIGINS OF TEMPERATURE AND SALINITY VARIATIONS IN THE SUBPOLAR GYRE. OUR PRIMARILY ANALYSIS METHOD IS BASED ON OCEAN STATE ESTIMATES PRODUCED BY THE ECCO (ESTIMATING THE CIRCULATION AND CLIMATE OF THE OCEAN) CONSORTIUM. USING ECCO ESTIMATES WE WILL ANALYZE DYNAMICALLY CONSISTENT BUDGETS OF THE UPPER-OCEAN TEMPERATURE AND SALINITY AND CONDUCT A SERIES OF FORWARD AND BACKWARD (ADJOINT) MODELING EXPERIMENTS. THESE TECHNIQUES WILL ALLOW US TO GAIN PHYSICAL INSIGHTS INTO MAIN DRIVERS AFFECTING TEMPERATURE AND SALINITY IN THE SUBPOLAR GYRE SUCH AS INTERNAL OCEAN DYNAMICS WIND AND BUOYANCY FORCING AND CHANGES IN THE GYRE CIRCULATIONS AND THE AMOC. IN ORDER TO PLACE THE RECENT CHANGES IN THE SUBPOLAR GYRE IN CONTEXT WE WILL ANALYZE TEMPERATURE AND SALINITY IN HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS.IDENTIFYING THE PHYSICAL PROCESSES RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT CHANGES IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS ESSENTIAL FOR (1) IMPROVING OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROCESSES THAT DRIVE CONTEMPORARY CHANGES IN CLIMATE SYSTEM ON A BROAD RANGES OF SCALES AND (2) IMPROVING OUR CAPABILITY FOR PREDICTING FUTURE CLIMATE. BOTH GOALS ADDRESS A FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT OF NASA'S EARTH SCIENCE RESEARCH PROGRAM THAT AIMS TO "INCREASE BASIC PROCESS KNOWLEDGE" AND "CHARACTERIZE THE PRESENT STATE AND FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THE EARTH'S SYSTEM" -- A CENTRAL ELEMENT TO THE NASA'S STRATEGIC PLAN SCIENCE GOAL 2.1. THE PROPOSAL ALSO DIRECTLY ADDRESSES MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE PRESENT SOLICITATION INCLUDING "ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF THE OCEAN CIRCULATION USING SATELLITE AND IN SITU DATA" AND "SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO THE CLIVAR PROGRAM" AS WELL AS ADDRESSING SEVERAL RESEARCH THEMES THAT ARE LISTED AS THE KEY QUESTIONS BY THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE FOCUS AREA OF THE EARTH SCIENCE RESEARCH PROGRAM.
Mod # | Description | ReasonForModification | Federal Obligation | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Other Administrative Action | $0 | 4/3/20 | |
| Not listed | $0 | 4/3/20 | ||
| Not listed | $0 | 12/31/19 | ||
| 4 | Other Administrative Action | $0 | 12/31/19 | |
| 3 | Funding Only Action | $176.1k | 3/12/19 |