This federal Project Grant award from the National Science Foundation (NSF) Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences (CFDA 47.075) program will provide $600,000 to Lehigh University for a 4-year research project titled "IHBEM: Enhancing Influenza Forecasting Through an Integrated Platform for User-Generated Temporal Forecasts."
The project will focus on developing a novel human judgment platform to collect temporal forecasts from public health experts, infectious disease clinicians, and the general public on the trajectory of infectious disease outbreaks. The research aims to identify the factors that influence expert decision-making, assess the accuracy of human forecasts compared to computational disease models, and develop algorithms to combine human judgment forecasts into an ensemble to improve infectious disease decision-making. This work has the potential to benefit populations at high risk for adverse influenza outcomes by enhancing infectious disease forecasting and preparedness capabilities.
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