Project Grant 2340133

The National Science Foundation (NSF) awarded a 5-year, $1,010,185 Project Grant to Cornell University through the Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) for the project "CAREER: ATTRIBUTING EXTREME WEATHER TO STRATOSPHERIC VARIABILITY USING ENSEMBLE FORECASTS." This research project aims to apply an event attribution framework to quantify the extent to which factors like sudden stratospheric warmings and amplified planetary waves increase the odds of cold air outbreaks on subseasonal timescales. The work will utilize observations and simulations from models of varying complexity, including a dry dynamical core model, a linear inverse model, and the Community Earth System Model. To address the challenge of generating a statistically significant sample of extreme events, the project will employ a rare-event sampling algorithm to efficiently produce the necessary data. The educational components include developing a modular undergraduate course on statistical thinking and hosting workshops that bring together weather/climate forecast users and students. No subawards are planned under this grant.