Project Grant 2312317

This National Science Foundation (NSF) Geosciences program Project Grant award of $381,865 to Colorado State University aims to understand how the predictability of severe weather events, such as tornadoes, hail, and flooding, may change as the climate warms. The research will generate and analyze large datasets of numerical weather model forecasts to assess how the ability to predict severe storms evolves in recent (20th century) versus future (21st century) climate scenarios. This work could inform applications that rely on accurate severe weather forecasts, such as water resource management. The project also involves training graduate and undergraduate students, as well as public outreach. A sub-award of an unspecified amount was provided to the University of Oklahoma to collaborate on generating and analyzing the forecast datasets, characterizing simulated storm changes, and assessing predictability shifts across climate scenarios.