Project Grant 2209699

This three-year, $846,782 Project Grant from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) will fund research to investigate the effect of future climate change on severe convective storms. The awardee, the University of Washington, will combine self-organized maps and idealized storm-scale simulations to examine how severe thunderstorms and tornadoes may change in a warmer climate. Researchers will first use data-based methods with climate model simulations to understand how environments conducive to severe thunderstorms may shift. They will then test the impacts of these changes on storm activity and hazards using storm-scale modeling. By integrating climate models, machine learning techniques, and idealized simulations, the project aims to provide a more comprehensive view of how severe convective storm activity may be altered in a future warmer climate when considering both large-scale environmental and storm-scale dynamic factors. Outcomes will enhance understanding of potential geographic and seasonal shifts in severe storms and hazards to better inform climate adaptation strategies.