This three-year, $1,135,926 National Science Foundation project grant funds research to reconcile hydroclimate model projections and geologic data from a warmer period in the past to improve understanding of future water availability in the Southwestern United States. The awardee, Colorado State University, will collect new stable isotope data from sedimentary carbonates in New Mexico spanning the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. Analysis of existing climate model simulations will differentiate hydroclimate responses to carbon dioxide forcing and sea surface temperature patterns. Additional simulations using a new method to rapidly model local precipitation responses to a range of sea surface temperature changes will also be conducted. Combining these data collection and modeling tasks will allow identification of drivers of Southwestern U.S. hydroclimate change and reconciliation of models with paleoclimate archives. This work supports the NSF Geosciences program's goal of expanding fundamental earth systems knowledge through basic research in the atmospheric, earth, and ocean sciences.
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